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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Wednesday after rebounding from the resistance level of 1.3513–1.3539, heading toward the support level of 1.3428–1.3437. A rebound from this zone would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth back toward the 1.3513–1.3539 level. A consolidation below the 1.3428–1.3437 level would increase the chances of continued decline toward the next support level at 1.3325–1.3352.
The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Geopolitics gave bears almost complete control of the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop supported bulls for three weeks. At present, the situation in the Middle East is mixed but tilting toward escalation and a prolonged confrontation between Iran and the U.S. The bullish trend is on the verge of breaking.
The news background on Wednesday was driven solely by U.S. events, but even the FOMC meeting did not provoke a strong reaction from traders. It should be noted that no major decisions were made, though Jerome Powell did allow for the possibility of changes to monetary policy parameters in the coming months. According to him, the level of uncertainty due to Middle East geopolitics is extremely high, so the FOMC is better off remaining in a wait-and-see mode. In a few hours, we will also learn the results of the Bank of England meeting. In my view, the market may react today only to unexpected voting results by the MPC on interest rates. If the number of "hawks" exceeds one, bulls may preserve the trend. If fewer, bears will continue to attack and break the bullish trend. I also recommend paying attention today to the U.S. Q1 GDP report. After a disappointing fourth quarter last year, traders expect a rebound of 1.5–2.3% quarter-over-quarter. However, forecasting the pace of U.S. economic growth under current conditions is extremely difficult. I believe the actual figure could differ significantly from these rather vague forecasts.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above a downward trend channel, suggesting the possibility of a full-fledged bullish trend. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3540 allows for some decline, but the chart pattern on the hourly timeframe is currently clearer, so I recommend focusing more closely on it. No emerging divergences are observed at the moment.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,139, while short positions rose by 5,454. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 63,000 versus 115,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, creating a significant imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical backdrop.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full ceasefire is still far off, and hostilities could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could strengthen further.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On April 30, the economic calendar contains six events, with traders needing to pay particular attention to the Bank of England meeting and U.S. GDP data. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment will be present throughout the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible after consolidation below the 1.3513–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3428–1.3437. These trades can still be held today. New selling positions may be considered after a close below 1.3428–1.3437, targeting 1.3325–1.3352. Buying opportunities may arise on a rebound from 1.3428–1.3437 with a target of 1.3513.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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