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A decrease in geopolitical tensions, even if only temporary, typically leads to an outflow of capital from safe-haven assets. However, in this case, the market is responding more to the reduction in inflationary pressure and the new monetary policy direction. The long-term outlook for gold remains unchanged. The extension of the truce will likely revive demand for the metal, so markets will closely monitor further developments. Any signs of renewed tension or failed negotiations could quickly reapply pressure on gold, as investors begin to fear a resurgence in inflation and interest rate hikes.
As mentioned above, the price of gold rose 1.1% today, surpassing $4,770 per ounce after falling more than 2% in the previous session. Trump stated that he would refrain from further strikes until Iran presents a new proposal and discussions are concluded in one way or another. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping, as Iran has stated that it will not open this vital waterway as long as the US maintains its blockade on vessels heading to and from the Islamic Republic.
Yesterday, US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to Islamabad for the scheduled peace negotiations after Iran informed the US that it would not participate in the talks.
It is important to remember that the war in the Middle East, now in its eighth week, has triggered an unprecedented shock in energy supplies, which has heightened inflation risks, making it more likely that central banks will keep interest rates at their current levels or even raise them—this presents obstacles for the non-yielding precious metal.
Since the beginning of the conflict, gold has lost about 10%, but in recent weeks it has moved within a relatively narrow range. This indicates that the market has largely priced in current geopolitical risks and now requires either a clear escalation or a decisive shift in macroeconomic conditions to justify a reassessment.
From a technical perspective, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,771. This would allow them to target $4,835, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,893. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control of $4,708. If they succeed, breaking through this range would deal a significant blow to the bulls, pushing gold down to a low of $4,647, with the prospect of reaching $4,591.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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