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On Tuesday, silver (XAG/USD) is showing moderate gains, supported by the U.S. dollar's weakness amid renewed optimism about possible negotiations between Washington and Tehran. At the time of publication, the XAG/USD pair reached the 50-day SMA, surpassing the 100-day SMA, indicating a restrained increase without a pronounced upward momentum, as price dynamics remain confined by the 50-day SMA.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, stated that "the right people" from Iran had reached out, emphasizing their interest in reaching an agreement. These comments came shortly after the U.S. announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports—a step taken following inconclusive negotiations over the weekend. Despite the lack of a breakthrough, diplomatic activities continue: according to media reports, the second phase of talks may take place in Islamabad before the current two-week ceasefire ends. According to Axios, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt have taken on mediating roles, seeking to bring the parties back to the negotiating table.
However, the level of uncertainty remains significant due to ongoing contradictions, mainly regarding Iran's nuclear program, which limits the prospects for a swift resolution. Nevertheless, the mere fact of renewed diplomatic initiatives has strengthened risk appetite, weakening the dollar's position. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to six-week lows.
Simultaneously, oil prices are correcting downwards after recent peaks, alleviating inflationary concerns and partially reducing expectations for a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, oil quotes remain relatively high, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to limit supplies and support inflationary risks.
In the near term, market attention will focus on news regarding the U.S.-Iran standoff—specifically, signals of de-escalation and possible resumption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under current conditions, silver is likely to trade within its current range. A stable breakout to the upside could follow clearer progress in negotiations and further declines in oil prices, which could strengthen expectations of a Fed easing. A rate cut typically benefits non-yielding assets such as silver and gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding them.
From a technical standpoint, a breakout above the 50-day SMA would allow bulls to push prices up to the $90.00 level. The next target would be the March high. If the 100-day SMA is not held, prices may find support at the 20-day SMA and could drop below to the $69.15 level. It is also worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index moving into positive territory, confirming an increase in bullish market sentiment.
According to the latest data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for March came in below forecasts. On a monthly basis, the indicator rose by 0.5% compared to an expected increase of 1.2%, with the previous estimate revised from 0.7% to 0.5%. Year over year, the PPI increased by 4.0%, falling short of the forecast of 4.6% and slightly below February's level of 3.4%.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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