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On Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is partially recovering from the previous day's correction as traders continue to assess the geopolitical risks associated with the war between the US and Iran, as well as supply interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the lack of sustainable upward momentum suggests markets are already partially pricing in the current situation, though uncertainty remains high as the conflict shows no apparent signs of de-escalation. Iran continues to strike key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, further constraining global supplies and preventing a more significant drop in oil prices despite the latest correction.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains a central issue in the escalation of the conflict, although market participants note some relief as some flows have been maintained through negotiations. Several countries, including China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey, are either already ensuring or seeking guaranteed passage for their vessels, establishing contacts with Tehran, while European countries such as France and Italy are also engaging in dialogue on this matter.
Meanwhile, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, noted that restoring normal energy trading will take time, emphasizing that the agency is ready to direct additional strategic reserves to the market if necessary. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that, in Tehran's view, the Strait of Hormuz will be closed only to "enemies and those who support their aggression," according to the Iranian news agency SNN.
In turn, US President Donald Trump reached out to allied countries dependent on this route, asking them to help ensure the strait's safety, including by deploying warships, but several key US partners rejected the initiative. The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Arsenio Dominguez, emphasized that naval escort does not "guarantee 100 percent" safety, and military support "is not a long-term or sustainable solution" to ensure uninterrupted supplies.
From a technical perspective, oil is trading above all moving averages, and oscillators are positive, but it is worth noting that the MACD histogram is flattening, indicating a weakening momentum. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for oil prices remains upward.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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