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The EUR/USD pair traded mostly sideways on Thursday, and the rebound from the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1889 allows traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1830. For now, I am not counting on a deeper drop, but today the U.S. inflation report will be released, and things may not go according to plan. A rebound from the 1.1769–1.1830 support level would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 23.6% corrective level at 1.1963.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple. The latest completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the latest upward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish." The bulls have taken a short pause within a large-scale advance that would have been impossible without Donald Trump. Trump has pushed tensions in the world and within the U.S. to the limit, and markets continue reacting by fleeing the risky U.S. currency with uncertain economic prospects.
On Thursday, the news background once again worked against the bears — but the bears did not seem to notice. Two reports were released in the U.S., and none in Europe. The American data showed fewer homes sold than expected and more new jobless claims than anticipated. Thus, bullish traders could have launched a new offensive on Wednesday or Thursday. However, for unexplained reasons, they continue to wait for a more favorable moment. Let me remind you that on Wednesday the Nonfarm Payrolls report was released, which only at first glance appeared positive. In January, significantly more jobs were created than traders had expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. However, at the same time, the Bureau of Statistics revised the number of nonfarm jobs created in 2025, revealing that on average no more than 20,000 jobs per month were added. For the U.S. economy, that figure is almost equivalent to zero.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1919 on the new Fibonacci grid and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Thus, the decline may continue toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1813. A consolidation above 1.1919 would increase the probability of continued growth toward the 1.2040–1.2066 resistance zone. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 11,965 long positions and closed 19,262 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 302,000, while short positions total 138,000 — more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players reduced short positions and increased long positions. Then the shutdown occurred, and now we see the same pattern again: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous long-term and structural challenges for the U.S., such as deterioration in the labor market and a decline in global reputation. Traders are also concerned about the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:
On February 13, the economic calendar contains two entries, both of which I consider important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be present throughout Friday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair was possible after an hourly close below 1.1889 with a target of 1.1830. These positions can be kept open today. Buying will become possible upon a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.1802–1.1830 level, with targets at 1.1889 and 1.1963.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1919–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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