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The GBP/USD pair attempted to extend its upward move on Thursday, but the market calmed after a volatile Wednesday and was unable to push it significantly higher. Nevertheless, the local upward trend on the hourly timeframe is maintained, so it is reasonable to expect and hope for continued growth. On Thursday, there were no significant events or reports in the UK, while in the US, traders had to settle for a less important unemployment claims report. The report turned out to be much better than forecasts, as the number of new initial claims was significantly lower. The dollar received a slight boost in the afternoon, but overall, its fundamental background remains extremely weak. The GBP/USD pair has been correcting downwards for five months; sooner or later, the global upward trend should resume. Next week, there will be an FOMC meeting, and the probability of a third consecutive rate cut is almost 100%.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has resumed forming a local upward trend. As previously mentioned, there are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth; therefore, we expect only northward movement. The correction/flat on the daily timeframe may not yet be over, but any local trend on the hourly timeframe is a potential resumption of the global trend.
On Friday, beginner traders may again expect trade signals to be formed in the area of 1.3329-1.3331. A consolidation above this area will allow new long positions to be opened, targeting 1.3413. A consolidation below it will lead to short positions targeting 1.3259-1.3267.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently take place at levels of 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Friday, there are again no important events scheduled in the UK, while in the US, three reports will be released, each of which may provoke a cautious market reaction. These reports include the PCE index, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and personal income/expenditures of American consumers.
Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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