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Yesterday, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. However, futures for American stock indices continued to trade, losing momentum despite rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which allowed the global stock market to achieve its best performance since June of this year.
Futures and options trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was suspended due to technical issues. The disruption specifically affected the trading of futures on US Treasury bonds and contracts on the S&P 500 index. Trading on the EBS currency platform was also interrupted due to the CME's outage.
The MSCI All Country World Index showed little change. Nevertheless, the index maintained a 3% gain for the week. Asian indices fell by 0.2%, marking the first monthly decline since March.
As I mentioned earlier, many stock indices rose over the week as investors strengthened their expectations for a Fed rate cut. Futures indicate about an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut next month and three additional cuts by the end of 2026. However, despite optimism surrounding potential rate cuts, a sense of caution persists in the market. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic statistics, particularly the lack of data on inflation and employment, which complicates decision-making processes.
"Asian equities are taking a breather after a very strong run," strategists at Global X Management said. "A lot of the recent strength came from a sharp reversal in positioning - softer US data and relief that the AI unwind wasn't turning into something more disorderly."
Regarding the CME, trading was suspended due to cooling issues at one of the data centers, according to an exchange representative. This affected contracts, including those for US crude oil, gasoline, and palm oil, traded on Bursa Malaysia through the CME electronic platform.
Silver settled around $54 per ounce, just below the record high set in October. Gold experienced its fourth monthly gain amid growing expectations of another rate cut in the United States. Rate reductions typically increase the value of the non-yielding metal. The price of Brent crude oil held steady above $63 per barrel, indicating a fourth consecutive monthly decline. At their meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ countries are expected to maintain their plan to suspend production growth until early 2026.
Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,837. This would help the index gain value and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,842. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,854 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,819. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,801 and open the way to $6,784.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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