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Yesterday, US stock indices ended with significant gains. The S&P 500 rose by 1.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.27%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.81%.
The stock market's growth, driven by optimism regarding a government shutdown agreement in the United States, has stalled in Asia as reports of China's plans to partially limit the export of rare earth metals to the US raised concerns. The regional MSCI stock index fell by 0.3% after previously rising by 0.5%, with Chinese indices leading the decline. The main Chinese stock index dropped by 0.9%. US stock index futures also declined by 0.1% after the S&P 500 index increased on Monday due to signs of an imminent agreement to end the government shutdown. European stock futures also reduced their gains.
The prospect of limiting supplies of rare earth metals, which are vital for electronics, batteries, and the defense industry, has caused investor nervousness. US dependence on China in this area has long been a cause for concern, and any restrictions could seriously impact American companies dealing with high technologies. It is noted that this may be China's response to ongoing US pressure regarding trade and technology. Although no official confirmation of plans has been received from the Chinese government, mere rumors have sparked speculation in the markets.
In parallel, euphoria over the prospects of resuming US government operations has somewhat subsided as market participants realized that the bill still needs to pass through the House of Representatives.
Tuesday's losses were also linked to investors reallocating funds into safer market segments after the recent sell-off in tech stocks. However, market participants continue to bet that the resumption of US government operations will restore the flow of key economic data on employment and inflation, clarifying the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
I would like to remind you that the record 41-day US government shutdown may come to an end as early as tomorrow. The Senate vote on Monday resulted in a 60-40 outcome amid increasing flight disruptions, delays in food aid, and dissatisfaction among federal employees who have gone without pay for over a month.
Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,837. This will help the index gain ground and also pave the way for a potential surge to the new level of $6,854. An equally important objective for bulls will be to maintain control above the $6,874 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward move driven by reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around the $6,819 area. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,801 and open the path toward $6,784.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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