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The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Thursday, although the pound had more reasons to fall. The Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged, but BoE Governor Andrew Bailey did not rule out a rate cut in June. Bailey also suggested a higher likelihood of a later start to monetary policy easing, but inflation in the UK is decreasing, allowing the central bank to start discussing rate cuts. It is also worth highlighting the fact that two members of the MPC voted in favor of lowering rates. In our opinion, these are bearish factors for the British currency, which shows that the pound had no grounds to rise on Thursday. However, the British currency has often exhibited illogical movements over the past six months. Everyone has already become accustomed to this.
On the 5-minute timeframe, a decent buy signal was formed near the level of 1.2457. The results of the BoE meeting were "moderately dovish," so it was difficult to expect the pair to rise. Nevertheless, those who executed this signal could earn about 50 pips, as the pair continued to trade higher for the rest of the day. In addition, two buy signals were formed around the level of 1.2502.
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but the correction persists. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. The BoE showed a firm dovish stance on Thursday, and yet the pound continued to rise.
Today, we expect the pound to fall if we are looking at logical movements. However, the UK will release an important report, and if its results exceed forecasts, this could boost the pound.
The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. On Friday, the UK will release reports on quarterly GDP and industrial production. Any note of optimism could translate into a new rise in the pound. The US docket will only feature the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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