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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the British pound on Wednesday and returned to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3404. A rebound from this level today would favor the US dollar and a potential decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3342. A consolidation above 1.3404 would increase the likelihood of further gains toward the 1.3454–1.3469 resistance level.
The market situation has turned bullish. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the new upward wave has also broken above the previous high. Thus, the bulls have temporarily taken the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Perhaps the time has now come for a bullish advance.
The news background on Wednesday allowed the bulls to continue their advance. The UK Consumer Price Index rose more than traders had expected. Core inflation also exceeded expectations. As a result, the market is now more confident that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in early November. This would be the Bank of England's first monetary policy tightening in several years and could provide even stronger support for the bulls, especially considering how long they have remained inactive. The current week has been particularly favorable for the pound. Therefore, graphic signals can be used for trading during the final two days of the week. A corrective pullback is possible, but it should not be assumed that one will begin simply because the pound has recently recorded substantial gains. The bears are not all-powerful, and the daily chart clearly shows a trading range, a liquidity sweep on the buy side, the formation of bullish patterns, and the invalidation of bearish patterns. Thus, the upward movement may continue over the coming weeks. The dollar, meanwhile, will find it difficult to strengthen further, as the market has already priced in several FOMC interest rate hikes.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has risen to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and a potential decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348. A consolidation above 1.3409 would increase the likelihood of further gains toward the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. Speculators reduced their Long positions by 1,074, while Short positions increased by 8,279. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 44,000 versus 151,000, respectively. The bears are once again increasing their advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but it is now open to question because the news background has changed in recent months.
The bearish trend in the pound remains unconvincing. However, in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward a more peaceful outlook, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. It is also uncertain whether they will resume in the near future.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On October 22, the economic calendar contains two events, one of which is Andrew Bailey's speech. Economic news may influence market sentiment on Thursday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling the pair is possible following a rebound from 1.3404 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3342. Buying is possible if the hourly candle closes above 1.3404, with targets at 1.3454–1.3469.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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