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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the pound again on Tuesday and consolidated above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3342, rising to the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3406 based on the new Fibonacci grid. A rebound from 1.3406 would favor the US dollar and a modest decline toward 1.3342. Consolidation above 1.3406 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 1.3454–1.3469 resistance level.
Market conditions have turned bullish. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the new upward wave has also broken above the previous high. As a result, the bulls have temporarily taken the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook communicated by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Perhaps the time has now come for a bullish counterattack.
The news flow supported the pound and the bulls on Tuesday, and there is a good chance it will support the British currency again on Wednesday. Yesterday, it was reported that the UK unemployment rate had fallen by 0.2 percentage points, contrary to traders' expectations. Today, inflation was reported to have risen to 3.5% year-on-year, also above expectations, with the forecast standing at 3.4%. Core consumer price inflation came in at 2.8%, also exceeding market expectations. Thus, the three most important UK reports this week have supported the bulls. So far, the pound's appreciation today has been barely noticeable. The market reaction could even be described as weak or absent, as the pound has yet to make any significant gains. However, bullish traders may continue their advance through the end of the day, as the likelihood of the Bank of England tightening monetary policy in early November has now become very high. Clearly, monetary tightening in the UK will not be limited to a single rate hike. Therefore, the British pound is now in a position that is at least as favorable as that of the US dollar. From this point onward, the Bank of England could raise interest rates even more aggressively than the Federal Reserve. Accordingly, further appreciation of the pound would be expected, despite the euro's very modest gains.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rose to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. A rebound from this level would favor the US currency and a modest decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3348. Consolidation above 1.3409 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. No emerging divergences are visible on any of the indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 1,074, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,279. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 44,000 versus 151,000. The bears are once again strengthening their advantage. Previously, bearish dominance was beyond question, but it is now less certain because the news backdrop has changed in recent months.
There is still little confidence in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. In the near term, however, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. There is no guarantee that they will resume anytime soon.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On October 21, the economic calendar contains one event, but it is an important one. Economic data may influence market sentiment on Wednesday, particularly during the first half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Short positions are possible following a rebound from 1.3406 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3342. Long positions are possible if the hourly chart closes above 1.3406 or if the pair rebounds from 1.3342, with targets at 1.3406 and the 1.3454–1.3469 level.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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