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15.09.202614:01 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 15 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

Due to the pair's low volatility, we were unable to reach the levels I had identified before they were tested.

Today, ZEW published its September data, showing that the German expectations index remained almost unchanged, rising by just 0.5 points to 34.7. The assessment of the current situation changed much more significantly, rising by 14.0 points to -47.1, indicating a gradual improvement in the perception of current conditions. However, the sector breakdown was highly uneven: the financial sector is benefiting from high interest rates, while export-oriented and energy-intensive industries continue to suffer. I believe that this divergence between the relatively more stable German economy and weakening expectations for the euro area best explains why the ECB, which raised its rate on September 10 for the second time since the start of the conflict in Iran, is acting so decisively despite the risks to growth. For the euro, this dynamic means that the market will continue to assess the pair primarily through the divergence within the euro area itself rather than through a single macroeconomic signal. As a result, EUR/USD fluctuations may remain fairly sharp over the coming days in response to any new data from the euro area or comments from ECB officials.

The key event in the second half of the day will be the release of ADP employment data and the Empire Manufacturing Index, which is forecast to fall sharply to 14.1 points in September from 20.6 in August. Nevertheless, if both indicators come in above consensus expectations, I believe this will restore demand for the dollar and give it additional momentum ahead of the Fed decision. For the euro, strong figures would be an unpleasant surprise against the backdrop of the already mixed morning ZEW data, with expectations for the euro area declining while those for Germany changed only slightly. The divergence between the relatively resilient German economy and the overall caution regarding the euro area is already putting pressure on EUR/USD, and strong US data could further reinforce this imbalance in favor of the dollar, leaving the pair with little chance of recovering by the end of the session.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the area around 1.1541 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1568. At 1.1568, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any upward movement in the euro today should be considered only a corrective move. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1529 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1541 and 1.1568 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1529 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1496, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1541 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1529 and 1.1496 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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