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विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण

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08.09.202618:46 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: EUR/USD – Smart Money Analysis: Price Movement Remains Limited

The EUR/USD pair declined for six days, but the market has been completely inactive this week. For seven full days now, the U.S. dollar has been unable to convince traders that further purchases are justified. Imbalance 21 has not been invalidated, while imbalance 20 triggered a price reaction. The only factor that weakened the bullish outlook was the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed a genuinely strong result after a series of weak readings. In August, 162,000 new jobs were created, while traders had expected no more than 56,000. Thus, the Nonfarm Payrolls report should have triggered a strong rise in the U.S. currency. This is not only because the labor market finally showed a positive result, but also because the chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening in September are now higher. Of course, I do not want to draw conclusions about the state of the labor market based on a single monthly report, but ahead of the September meeting, it nevertheless provides a good basis for a rate hike. However, I still believe that the Fed will not take a hawkish step in September. This may explain the market's muted reaction to the payrolls report.

Overall, in my view, the fundamental background continues to fully support the bulls. First, any chart clearly shows that the European currency began its rise from relatively low levels, compared with the average price over the past year. This means that it still has room to rise. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what Warsh says. Third, U.S. economic data have recently been disappointing. Fourth, geopolitical developments no longer support the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB may implement another monetary policy tightening as early as this week. Sixth, the U.S. Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, which reduces demand for the dollar. Seventh, a new trade war between the United States and Canada and between the United States and China could begin in the near future. Eighth, the U.S. labor market in 2026 is performing only slightly better than in 2025, which could undermine the market's hawkish expectations. Thus, I currently see no reason for a bearish advance.

U.S. labor-market data over the past 4–6 months have more often shown weak than strong readings, inflation has slowed over the past two months, and GDP growth has decelerated over the past three quarters. These three factors make me doubt that the FOMC will raise rates not only in September but also by the end of the year. In my view, the bears' only opportunity at present lies in a new escalation in the Middle East, not in individual economic reports.

The current technical picture indicates that the bullish momentum is intact. Price has completely filled the latest bullish imbalance 21 and even touched the previous bullish imbalance 20. The combined reaction to these two patterns could bring the bulls back into the market and resume the upward movement. The bears will have a technical basis for an advance only if both patterns are invalidated. The European currency will also have to support the pound, which does not have such a strong support zone.

The economic background on Tuesday was virtually absent because traders showed no interest in the ADP report in the United States or Germany's trade balance data. Trader activity remained at a minimum level for the second consecutive day.

There are still a huge number of reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I see no significant factors supporting the U.S. currency despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitical developments, which supported demand for the U.S. currency for most of the first half of 2026, are no longer doing so. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, but there have been no new hostilities from either Iran or the United States.

Economic calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – ECB President Christine Lagarde to speak (17:00 UTC).

On September 9, the economic calendar contains one event that may be of interest to traders. The economic background may influence market sentiment in the second half of the day, but most likely it will not.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that paused for an entire year. The fundamental background shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend cannot be considered canceled or complete. From a long-term perspective, I would say that the pair is in a range. However, the range does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Thus, the bulls may well continue their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support zone in the form of imbalance 21, where a new bullish signal may form. We have already seen a precise rebound from imbalance 20. I consider 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the targets for a new advance in the European currency.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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