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Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have risen slightly, but their further direction depends entirely on today's US inflation data.
Today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), data that could become a decisive factor for the direction of the cryptocurrency market following yesterday's reversal in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Friday's disappointing employment report. The consensus forecast calls for annual inflation to slow to 3.4% from 3.5% in June, while the core measure, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to decline to 2.5% from 2.6%, its lowest level since January.
If the data come in above expectations, approaching the previous May levels of around 4%, the cryptocurrency market's reaction will most likely repeat the scenario seen in late July, when concerns about a rate hike alone caused Bitcoin to fall sharply. Three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents have already voted for an immediate rate hike at the July 29 meeting, marking the most significant split within the committee since 2016. Hot inflation data would give this hawkish minority additional arguments to make another attempt at the September meeting.
The opposite scenario—a stronger-than-expected slowdown in inflation, to below 3.3% or 2.4% for the core measure—could reproduce the effect of Friday's weak employment report, but this time in relation to the inflation component rather than the employment component of the Fed's dual mandate. Such an outcome would virtually eliminate a September rate hike from market expectations and restore risk appetite, potentially allowing Bitcoin to consolidate above the psychological level of $65,000.
An important caveat is that even a sustainably low CPI does not automatically guarantee a dovish shift by the Fed. According to Bank of America, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation measure preferred by the central bank, could come in 0.24 percentage points above CPI on a monthly basis, meaning that it could formally point toward a rate hike even with a favorable CPI reading.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $64,200, with a target of a rise to $64,500. Around $64,500, I will exit the long position and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $63,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $64,200 and $64,400 levels.
Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $63,900, with a target of a decline to $64,200. Around $64,400, I will exit the short position and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $64,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $63,900 and $63,600 levels.
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $1,913, with a target of a rise to $1,931. Around $1,931, I will exit the long position and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,901 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $1,913 and $1,931 levels.
Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $1,901, with a target of a decline to $1,883. Around $1,883, I will exit the short position and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,913 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward the $1,901 and $1,883 levels.
*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |
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