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09.07.202618:58 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: GBP/USD – Smart Money Analysis: Bullish Sentiment Remains Strong

The GBP/USD pair posted a fairly strong advance, which may mark the beginning of a broader bullish trend. In my view, the U.S. dollar's appreciation between June 17 and June 24 was inconsistent with the underlying news backdrop. At that time, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East had been brought to a halt, yet it had been the primary driver of the dollar's strength throughout 2026. Therefore, seeing the dollar rise first because of the war and then continue rising after the end of the conflict was, at the very least, unusual. Surprisingly, the U.S. dollar failed to strengthen this week despite another escalation in the Middle East that could have serious consequences. Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire and revoked the authorization allowing Iran to sell oil, which had been granted under the peace agreement. As a result, the period of calm has come to an end. Traders, however, have so far been reluctant to price in a renewed conflict, as similar situations have occurred several times before. In each case, the parties returned to the negotiating table. I believe the market's lack of reaction to the renewed geopolitical tensions is justified.

It is also worth noting that the market initially expected inflation in the United States to accelerate unless the FOMC intervened. Later, the risks of further price growth began to ease as oil fell to $70 per barrel. Yesterday, however, oil climbed back to nearly $80, and the consequences of the latest escalation in the Middle East could lead to a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports. If events begin to unfold according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices could quickly return to levels above $100 per barrel. In that case, hopes for slowing inflation in either the United States or the eurozone would quickly disappear. The market would once again have to revise its expectations regarding the monetary policies of both the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

Technical analysis pointed to potential growth toward the 1.3322 level, which is exactly what occurred. The price first swept liquidity below the April 6 low and then below the March 31 low. Therefore, there were solid grounds for expecting the pound to appreciate. Given that the dollar still lacks compelling reasons for a sustainable long-term trend and has already posted an impressive rally in 2026, I believe the bears are unlikely to maintain their offensive. In addition, Bullish Imbalance 23 was formed last week, and the price has already reacted to it twice. As for Bearish Imbalance 21, I now consider it invalidated, as the price has moved too far above it, although its base has not been broken. Therefore, I expect either a continuation of the pound's advance or the formation of new bullish signals, followed by further gains after a corrective pullback.

At present, the market remains highly cautious regarding the agreement between Iran and the United States, and recent events have shown that such caution is fully justified. Shelling near the Strait of Hormuz continues to occur regularly despite the memorandum signed several weeks ago. The Federal Reserve previously triggered a strong rally in the U.S. dollar, but I still do not see what could enable the bears to continue their offensive. Can expectations of further FOMC monetary tightening alone sustain the dollar's advance?

There were no notable economic releases on Thursday. Throughout the day, the market could have focused on geopolitical developments but chose to ignore them, as traders appear to have grown tired of the topic. As a result, technical analysis is likely to remain the primary market driver in the near term—certainly throughout this week.

The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect nothing other than a long-term decline in the U.S. dollar. Neither the conflict between Iran and the United States nor the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 has changed that outlook. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the conflict has ended or is at least approaching its conclusion. The Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates in 2026, which is supportive for the dollar. However, it should not be overlooked that tighter monetary policy will slow both the U.S. economy and the labor market. In addition, Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump as Chairman of the FOMC to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy, something Jerome Powell was unable to deliver. In my opinion, any tightening by the Federal Reserve will not develop into a prolonged tightening cycle and is unlikely to have a lasting impact. Therefore, I believe any appreciation of the U.S. dollar will be temporary rather than the beginning of a sustained trend.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

July 10: The economic calendar contains no significant events. As a result, macroeconomic data is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the British pound remains bullish. Following the liquidity sweeps below the two most recent swing lows, the bulls have an opportunity to regain control. The pound could still resume its decline toward the bullish trend invalidation level at 1.3007, but that would require new bearish signals. Since Bearish Imbalance 21 has been invalidated, that source of bearish confirmation is no longer available. The bullish case is supported by the two liquidity sweeps as well as Bullish Imbalance 23. The market has already reacted to Bullish Imbalance 23, while the next upward targets are the highs of May 1 and January 27 at 1.3656 and 1.3867, respectively.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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