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Fundamental analysis

28.05.202606:53 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: What to Pay Attention to on May 28? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, May 28. The most interesting is the American data, particularly the report on durable goods orders and the core personal consumption expenditure (a derived measure of inflation). Additionally, the second estimate of U.S. GDP for the first quarter will be released today. Overall, these data are quite important, but will the market pay attention to them? The day started with a decline in the British pound, which may be associated only with geopolitics. Thus, American reports are unlikely to have a significant impact on market sentiment. Only a short-term market reaction is possible.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the key events on Thursday, the speeches by Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane (European Central Bank), Philip Jefferson and John Williams (Federal Reserve), and Sarah Breeden from the Bank of England stand out. However, it should be noted that only the ECB can change its key interest rate at the June meeting. There is no confidence in this change, as an increase in the key interest rate would add further pressure on the European economy, which is already slowing due to rising energy prices. Therefore, the speeches of ECB Chief Economist Lane and ECB President Christine Lagarde may clarify the central bank's near-term monetary plans. The BoE and the Fed do not intend to change their monetary policy parameters at the next meeting.

The geopolitical backdrop became more hopeful last week, but it should be remembered that Trump's statements have been repeatedly refuted, and the U.S. president's rhetoric changes several times a day. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have resumed, and according to the American president, they are "very successful." However, confirmations from Iran regarding the success of the diplomacy have not materialized. On Tuesday, there was a new breach of the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, and on Wednesday, one of the members of Iran's negotiating team stated that nuclear fuel is not a topic for discussion with Washington.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite sluggishly if no new messages regarding the conflict and ceasefire in the Middle East arrive throughout the day. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1584-1.1591, and the British pound in the range of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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