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13.05.202608:18 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 13. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.67 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Yesterday, the dollar did not gain significantly against the Japanese yen, despite the US main Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.6% in April, exceeding analysts' forecasts. Core prices also increased by 0.4%. For the Federal Reserve, such figures are a cause for concern, raising the likelihood of a tighter monetary policy. However, the yen remained around 158, as many market participants remain wary of possible Bank of Japan interventions.

The absence of dollar purchases can be attributed to concerns among many market participants about potential interventions by the BOJ. Amid the yen's weakness, which continues to worry Japanese authorities, there is a real possibility that Tokyo may intervene in the currency market to support the yen if its exchange rate continues to decline rapidly. Such expectations of intervention act as a sort of ceiling for further growth of the dollar against the yen, creating a zone of psychological resistance that market players seek to avoid due to fears of direct losses.

For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry price around 157.76 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 158.15 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 158.15, I plan to exit the long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.61 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 157.76 and 158.15.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.61 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 157.16, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 157.76 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 157.61 and 157.16.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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