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The price of gold sharply decreased after tensions flared in the Middle Eastern waters over the weekend, inflation risks associated with the energy shock resurfaced, and doubts about peace negotiations emerged. This event, despite initial concerns, led to a decline in the value of the precious metal, which is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset.
Gold prices fell by 1.9% before partially compensating for the losses. President Donald Trump stated that the US Navy fired upon and seized a cargo ship flying the Iranian flag, while Tehran warned that ships approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be considered violators of the ceasefire. This escalation of conflict seemingly should have pushed gold prices higher, but the market reacted otherwise, possibly reflecting a more complex picture of global economic factors and expectations of further developments.
Several vessels were forced to abandon their passage just hours after the Islamic Republic announced the opening of this key waterway on Friday.
These incidents once again jeopardized prospects for peace negotiations in Islamabad before the fragile 14-day ceasefire expires on Tuesday. Trump indicated that he saw a chance for a deal while simultaneously renewing threats to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges. Tehran stated that there were no clear prospects for productive negotiations. The inability to reach a durable diplomatic agreement to end the war, which has been ongoing for 8 weeks, will continue to drive significant market volatility.
The morning decline in gold prices reflects worsening risk sentiment following the weekend's geopolitical events. However, there are still positive expectations that both sides will return to the negotiating table.
Given how quickly gold was bought back, the latest pricing dynamics highlight a trend towards buying on dips rather than on rallies. Gold is expected to continue fluctuating between $4,700 and $4,900 per ounce.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,835. This will allow them to target $4,893, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $4,913 area. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control of $4,771. If this is achieved, breaking through this range could deal a serious blow to the bulls and push gold down to a low of $4,708, with the prospect of reaching $4,647.
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