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On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair is seeing a new influx of sellers, partially pulling back from the 50-day SMA. Nevertheless, spot quotes have recovered a few points above the daily low.
The decline of the British pound against the Japanese yen can be linked to growing concerns about energy price shocks caused by the war with Iran. Additionally, the Bank of England's signaling of a possible rate hike as early as April increases risks to the economy, putting pressure on the pound. Under these conditions, a new wave of global risk aversion supports the yen's status as a safe-haven asset and adds pressure on GBP/JPY.
Hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East have weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump, in an address to the nation, threatened Iran with a "very strong strike" within the next two to three weeks if no agreement is reached. Reports that the UAE may join military actions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz increase the likelihood of a broader regional conflict and reduce investor appetite for riskier assets. As a result of recent developments, a sharp intraday rise in oil prices has been recorded, intensifying inflation concerns.
Investors also fear that the surge in energy prices triggered by the conflict could undermine Japan's economic growth and reignite inflation, creating a risk of stagflation and complicating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization process. In theory, this could limit the strengthening of the yen and partially support GBP/JPY quotes.
The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies today, with the strongest gain observed against the Australian dollar.
From a technical perspective, oscillators are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index is in negative territory, indicating weak bullish momentum. For bulls to regain control, they need to break above the 20-day SMA. However, as long as prices remain above the 100-day SMA—and both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are trending upward—bulls still have a chance.
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