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विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण

Fundamental analysis

03.02.202600:53 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: Iran Will Not Give Up Uranium Enrichment; Trump Has No Choice

In June of last year, US bombers carried out airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. It is probably unnecessary to remind that the United States and the European Union have been demanding that Iran stop its nuclear development for several years now. Tehran continues to insist that all work with uranium and other radioactive metals is conducted exclusively for peaceful purposes. Neither America nor Europe believes this, which is why Iran remains under the strictest international sanctions. A country that could potentially become the second UAE (due to its vast oil reserves) has been forced to live in poverty for decades.

Meanwhile, images from various satellites indicate that Tehran has begun to repair the nuclear facilities damaged last summer. The photos clearly show new roofs on two facilities in Natanz and Isfahan, which were previously destroyed. This is the first confirmed activity regarding the restoration of facilities since the attack. Experts also report that building reconstruction is unnecessary without restoring the functionality of the facilities themselves. As such, Iran plans to restart them or has already done so. It is important to note that virtually all of Iran's nuclear facilities are largely underground. It is impossible to determine how destructive Trump's strikes were last June, what damage Tehran sustained, or how long it will take to restore them. However, the fact that restoration is taking place is evident.

What does this mean in the context of the January escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran? In my view, the answer is unequivocal. Iran is not planning to abandon its nuclear development or uranium enrichment, despite US threats. It is worth recalling that several US military ships—aircraft carriers—are currently in the Persian Gulf. Trump could give the order to attack Iran at any moment. However, it is not entirely clear which targets the American Air Forces will attack this time. Trump has previously talked about the complete destruction of the targeted nuclear facilities. It would be strange for him to start bombing them again. Additionally, earlier this year, Trump stated that the US Air Forces could target government facilities in support of the Iranian revolution.

In my opinion, a strike on Iran is inevitable; the only question is timing. The dollar has every chance to strengthen its position a little more within the corrective structure for both instruments. In recent days, we have seen that the news backdrop is being ignored by the market, allowing the American currency to improve its position.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The current trend targets may reach the 25 figure. At this moment, I believe that the global wave 4 has completed its formation, so I expect further price increases. However, I anticipate a downward wave in the near term, as the series of waves a-b-c-d-e also appears complete. In the near future, my readers can seek benchmarks for new purchases.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe a corrective set of waves may form in the near future, after which the upward trend will resume. Consequently, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities to make new purchases. In my opinion, under Donald Trump, the British pound has a good chance of trading at 1.45-1.50 USD. Trump himself welcomes the decline of the dollar. All his actions have a double positive effect: the decrease of the dollar and the resolution of internal, external, trade, and geopolitical issues.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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