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19.03.202406:57 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: Key events on March 19: fundamental analysis for beginners

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

Exchange Rates 19.03.2024 analysis

For Tuesday, the lineup of macroeconomic events is practically barren. One might pay attention to the US housing market data. These are reports on housing starts and building permits. However, we consider these data to be secondary of importance, so we do not expect the market to react to them.

In addition, Germany and the European Union will publish economic sentiment indices from the ZEW Institute, but these reports are also of minor significance. We believe that at most, the market reaction to the European and American data may be around 20 pips.

Analysis of fundamental events:

From Tuesday's fundamental events, only a speech by European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stands out. But we have already mentioned that the market does not expect any important and new information from ECB officials at this time. The ECB meeting already took place, and Christine Lagarde provided all the necessary and relevant information to the market. Furthermore, investors brushed off several speeches last week. The market has determined that unless there is an unexpected event, the first ECB rate cut will take place in June, and there is currently no report that suggests otherwise.

Exchange Rates 19.03.2024 analysis

General conclusion:

Today, we expect both instruments to continue their respective downward movements, but we also anticipate low volatility. Both currency pairs may extend their downward movement based solely on technical analysis, but if the instrument only moves by 30-40 pips, it will be difficult to expect profits. We can only expect strong trading signals and profits when volatility is at a moderate or high level. The only hope is that the market will start anticipating the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in advance. Then volatility will gradually begin to increase today.

Basic rules of a trading system:

1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.

2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.

3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.

5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.

6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.

How to read charts:

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.

The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.

Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.

Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

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