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Hi, dear traders! On the 1-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair made a new bounce from the support zone of 1.2584 – 1.2611 on Friday. It was a reversal in favor of the British currency. So, the price grew in the direction of the downward trend line. A rebound from this line today will be in favor of the American currency and enable a new pullback to the zone of 1.2584 – 1.2611. Fixation above the trend line will increase the likelihood of further growth in GBP/USD in the direction of 1.2715, the next Fibonacci level of 61.8%.
The situation with the waves remains very ambiguous. For a long time, we observed a horizontal movement, within which single waves or triplets were almost always formed. They alternated with each other and had approximately the same size. The sideways movement seems to be completed, but we continue to see the same single waves and triplets that constantly alternate. We are not getting less certain that GBP/USD will complete its sideways move soon. At this time, the next three-wave structure seems to be complete, but there are no signs of a change in the trend to bearish yet. The waves are very weak and constantly alternate.
On Friday, the UK released a manufacturing PMI, which was of absolutely no interest to anyone. The American ISM PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment indices turned out to be weaker than expected, which caused the bears to retreat in the afternoon. I wouldn't make any hasty conclusions about the state of affairs in the US economy judging by these data. This week, the economic calendar for the US contains a series of reports on the labor market, business activity, vacancies, and unemployment. This week, market participants will be able to check their conclusions about negative changes. Locally, the US dollar has a good chance of strengthening. Globally, it has not been able to show growth for several months.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD consolidated above the trend line and rebounded from the level of 1.2620, which allows us to expect continued growth in the direction of 1.2745, the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. However, you should not count on a new bullish trend at this time. The horizontal trajectory is now clearly visible on all charts. The bullish trend may have already ended as the bears enabled a close under the ascending corridor on the 1-hour chart. No divergences are observed today in any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT):
The sentiment of Non-commercial category of traders did not change over the last reporting week. The number of long contracts increased by 4,368, whereas and the number of short contracts rose by 4,322. The overall mood of major players remains bullish and continues to strengthen, although I do not see any specific reasons for this. There is more than a twofold gap between the number of long and short contracts: 92K versus 45K.
In my opinion, the British currency still has excellent bearish prospects. I believe that over time the bulls will begin to get rid of buy positions, since all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. For three months now, the bulls have not been able to push through the level of 1.2745, but the bears are also in no hurry to go on the offensive and lack strength now. I would also like to note that the total number of long and short has been the same for several months, which indicates equilibrium in the market.
Economic calendar for US and UK
On Monday, the economic calendar does not contain any noteworthy reports. Therefore, the information will make no impact on market sentiment today.
Outlook and trading tips for GBP/USD
Traders may consider sell positions on GBP/USD today when the price dips from the trend line on the 1-hour chart. The bearish target is seen in the area of 1.2584 – 1.2611. Long positions will be relevant when the price rebounds from the area of 1.2584 – 1.2611 on the 1-hour chart. The bullish target is determined at 1.2715. The thing is that the bulls will find it difficult to finish the session above the trend line. If GBP/USD closes above the trend line, we could add more buy positions with targets at 1.2715 and 1.2788.
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