06.08.202607:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: WTI (CL): scenario outlook for August 4, 2026

WTI crude is at a pivotal juncture, where geopolitical de-escalation and fundamental factors are weighing on prices, though risks remain elevated. The key driver remains the situation surrounding US-Iran negotiations, with any sign of progress potentially sending prices crashing toward $73-70, while a breakdown in talks could push oil back to $80-85.

On the daily chart:

• The EMA50 is around 82.20, with the price trading significantly below this level, indicating a shift in the short-term trend.
• The EMA144 is at 81.40, also acting as resistance.
• The EMA200 is near 79.20, forming a key long-term barrier.
• The daily RSI (14) is in the 44-43 region, pointing to bearish momentum that has yet to reach oversold territory.
• The OsMA histogram has turned negative, confirming strengthening bearish momentum.
• The Stochastic oscillator is in the 39-49 range, indicating downward momentum with scope for further downside.

The bearish scenario would materialize on a break below 75.00, opening the path to 74.50 (the weekly EMA144) and 73.30 (the weekly EMA200). A break of these levels would push prices into a long-term bearish market phase, making short positions preferable over the longer term, with targets near 64.00-60.50 (the monthly EMA144 and EMA200).

Conditions for realization:

• A break below the support level of 75.00 with subsequent confirmation.
• Progress in US-Iran negotiations, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and increased supply.
• Recovery of OPEC+ supply and growth in non-OPEC output.
• Decline in global demand amid slowing economic growth.
• A technical break below 75.00 with confirmation from indicators (RSI below 40, accelerating OsMA decline) would open the path toward 74.50 and 70.00.

The bullish scenario would materialize on a break above the immediate resistance levels of 78.00 (weekly EMA50) and the 80.00 mark (psychological level). For the market to move into a bullish phase, the price needs to overcome the resistance zone of 82.20-83.00.

Conditions for realization:

• Sustained consolidation above 80.00 and a return to the 50-day EMA at 82.20.
• A breakdown in US-Iran negotiations and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• Fresh supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on energy infrastructure.
• Lower-than-expected US inventory prints and an unexpected rise in demand.
• A technical break above 80.00 confirmed by indicators (RSI above 50, OsMA turning positive) would open the path toward 83.00 and 86.00.

Target zone: 80.00, then 83.00 and 86.00.

Trading scenarios:

Bearish scenario (WTI downside): Sell Stop 75.00 (break of support). Stop-Loss 77.50. Targets 74.50, 73.50, 70.00, 64.00, 60.50.

Bullish scenario (WTI upside): Buy Stop 77.50, 80.50. Stop-Loss 75.00. Targets 82.00, 83.50, 86.00.

*Here, "Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This does not imply they will necessarily be reached but may serve as a guide for planning and positioning trades.

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