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02.10.202612:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – October 2 (US Session)

Relevance up to 10:00 2026-10-03 UTC+00

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of 157.90 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the dollar. However, as shown on the chart, the pair did not make a significant move higher, resulting in a loss being taken on the position. Selling at 157.60 also failed to generate a satisfactory profit.

The next major event is the US employment report, which is of interest for the yen primarily as a signal for Treasury yields, as these largely determine the direction of USD/JPY. Nonfarm employment is expected to increase by 90,000, while the market will also assess the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and changes in private-sector employment. Strong data would push yields higher and restore buying interest in the pair. The 160 level remains a psychological reference point, around which Japanese authorities have already intervened this year. Its very presence limits appetite for further gains in the pair.

If the data significantly exceed expectations, USD/JPY could receive an upward impulse toward higher levels, while the risk of verbal intervention by Japanese officials would increase. A weak report would give the yen a better chance of a downward correction in the pair at the end of the week. Falling yields and a weaker dollar would push USD/JPY lower, while expensive oil, which is weighing on Japan's trade balance due to energy imports, would be the only limiting factor.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Exchange Rates 02.10.2026 analysis

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: USD/JPY can be bought today when the entry point is reached around 158.48 (the green line on the chart), with the target of rising toward 158.84 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.84, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential appears limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests 158.21 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.48 and 158.84 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: USD/JPY can be sold today after the price breaks below 158.21 (the red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.72, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests 158.48 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.21 and 157.72 can be expected.

Exchange Rates 02.10.2026 analysis

What Is Shown on the Chart:

  • Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
  • Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as a further rise above this level is unlikely;
  • Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
  • Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as a further decline below this level is unlikely;
  • MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally preferable to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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