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The GBP/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Monday, even weaker than the EUR/USD pair, which is quite rare. Throughout the day, the British pound fell to 1.3307 in the absence of any fundamental or macroeconomic events. Thus, the pair is now positioned near the trend line and close to the Kijun-sen line. The upward trend persists, but the European currency has already shown an inexplicable decline this week. Recall that the results of the Federal Reserve meeting will be known tomorrow evening, and they are likely to be "dovish." Thus, the dollar's initial strengthening this week (albeit weak) looks surprising.
However, the dollar has repeatedly surprised both traders and analysts in recent months. Most still cannot understand why the dollar is rising when it should be falling. We believe that the key factor remains the flat on the daily timeframe, specifically the flat for the euro. The British pound has formed a complete downward correction, but its decline is limited by the euro's drop within its sideways channel. It will be difficult for the euro to drop below 1.1400 anytime soon. Moreover, even reaching the 1.1400 level will be challenging given the volatility in recent months.
On the 5-minute timeframe, a trading signal was formed yesterday evening. The price reached 1.3307, reacted perfectly, rebounded from it, and moved up by about 10 pips. The day's overall volatility was 40.
COT reports for the British pound show that, in recent years, sentiment among commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines depicting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross and are mostly located near the zero mark. Currently, they are practically at the same level, indicating an approximately equal number of buy and sell positions.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as clearly seen on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will, in any case, be lowering rates over the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will fall in one way or another. According to the last COT report (dated October 28) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,000 contracts for BUY and 10,500 contracts for SELL. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,500 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated, and no fresh figures are available.
In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but it should be understood that the reason is one: Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is neutralized, the dollar may begin to rise, but when that will happen is uncertain. It doesn't matter at what pace the net position for the pound is rising or falling (if it is falling). The net position for the dollar is declining in any case, and usually at a higher rate.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. We believe that growth in the medium term will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, and the correction on the daily timeframe will eventually be completed. Or may already have been completed. However, much will depend on U.S. labor market data, unemployment, and inflation this December, which will determine the direction of the Fed's monetary policy.
For December 9, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3155) and Kijun-sen line (1.3279) may also provide signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Tuesday, there are no significant events or reports planned in the UK, but the U.S. will release relatively important JOLTs reports on job openings and ADP reports on changes in the private sector's workforce (weekly version). Thus, high volatility is unlikely today, but the pair may trade somewhat more actively in the afternoon.
Today, traders may consider selling if the price re-establishes below the Kijun-sen line, with a target at 1.3201-1.3212. Long positions will become relevant upon a bounce from the 1.3307 level with a target at 1.3369-1.3377.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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