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Most FOMC Committee members lean towards keeping the interest rate unchanged in December. It is difficult for me to say on what data this preliminary decision was made. Why did the Monetary Policy Committee express concerns about the labor market in September and November, and suddenly stop doing so now, when no reports on payrolls or unemployment have been released?
Therefore, in my opinion, any assumptions regarding the Federal Reserve's decision at the December meeting are mere guesswork. This conclusion applies to both forecasts from major banks and analytical companies, as well as those of private traders. Let me remind you that Jerome Powell repeats in every speech that the Fed will make decisions based solely on economic information. If there is no information, then what decision can the FOMC make three weeks before the next meeting?
What, then, do all the "hawkish" comments from Fed officials mean? I remind you that at least six of them have stated that they do not see the need to conduct another round of policy easing at the next meeting. In my opinion, this means that the FOMC wants to see all reports on inflation, jobs, and unemployment for September, October, and November before making a decision. The fact that the Committee is currently set to "neutral" (although many perceive this "neutrality" as "hawkishness") does not mean that their opinion and mood won't change in a few weeks (just before the Fed meeting, when FOMC officials will not be able to provide comments and interviews for 10 days).
Based on everything said, it follows that "you should count your chickens in the fall." There is still no economic information. This Thursday, reports on payrolls and unemployment will be released, which are certainly interesting but may already be outdated. The Bureau of Statistics may not provide October data at all, as the entire month was affected by a government shutdown in the U.S. I believe that only at the beginning of December can one start making certain forecasts about the Fed's decision on the 10th.
Based on the analysis conducted on EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current segment of the trend may stretch all the way to the 25-figure. A building upward wave sequence may begin now. I expect that from the area of 1.1541 – 1.1587, the third wave of this set will start forming, which may be either an impulse wave or a corrective wave. In any case, in the coming days, I am considering buying with targets around 1.1740.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complicated. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in 4 is presumably complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main wave structure to resume its formation with initial targets around 38 and 40 figures. The key is that the news background should be at least a little better than last week.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
