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On Friday, EUR/USD once again consolidated below the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1220, opening the way for a further decline toward the 1.1081–1.1086 support level. A new consolidation above 1.1220 would favor the euro and a potential recovery toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1325. The bearish momentum has now faded, but the euro remains under pressure and has been unable to post even a modest recovery.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous peak. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US dollar, while other factors have little influence. Bearish sentiment remains strong, further helping the dollar appreciate.
The news background on Friday was relatively subdued, leaving traders with little reason to initiate new buying or selling positions in the pair. The week ended quietly, without sharp price movements, and the news flow had also been weak over the preceding four trading days. There will be relatively few significant or noteworthy events this week as well.
The fact that bulls cannot capitalize even on news that is positive for the euro and negative for the US dollar is telling. In other words, if the market is unwilling to buy euros and sell dollars, it will not do so regardless of the news. Therefore, the US inflation report due this week is important for the FOMC's monetary policy outlook, but the market will have the final say. If traders again conclude that hawkish sentiment within the FOMC is strengthening, they will continue buying the US dollar. If they have grown tired of buying the dollar, demand may fade even if inflation accelerates sharply. At present, market conditions depend more on traders' own sentiment, while the news background has only a limited impact.
On the 4-hour chart, despite the formation of three bullish divergences, EUR/USD has still failed to begin a sustained recovery. The price has once again consolidated below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1221, suggesting a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level, 161.8% at 1.1088. A new consolidation above 1.1221 would create an opportunity for bulls to launch an advance, although the probability of this scenario remains relatively low. No emerging divergences are evident on any indicator.
During the latest reporting week, institutional traders opened 4,837 Long positions and 40,913 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 243,000, compared with 342,000 Short positions. Bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more often than it is bought. This reflects the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's strong determination to bring inflation lower. The market still believes that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any available means.
Overall, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Global events of various kinds—which have been abundant in recent years—undoubtedly influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of events that could not have been anticipated in advance. As a result, traders have little choice but to adjust their strategies as conditions evolve.
The economic calendar for October 12 contains no significant releases. The economic news background is therefore unlikely to affect market sentiment on Monday.
Buying opportunities may arise if the pair closes above 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. Selling opportunities may arise if the pair consolidates below 1.1220, with a target in the 1.1081–1.1086 support level.
The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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