25.08.202616:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Stock market on August 25: S&P 500 and Nasdaq close mixed

US equity indexes closed mixed yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 0.28%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.76%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 0.26%.

Earlier today, futures on US indexes rose as selling pressure on the technology sector eased, pointing to cautious optimism ahead of this week's key earnings that will test confidence in the artificial intelligence market. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index recovered 0.7% of prior losses and was up 0.3%.

Notably, optimism followed a drop in the Wall Street chipmaker index to its lowest level since July. Nvidia registered its longest run of declines since 2022 as investors trimmed positions ahead of Wednesday's results. In other words, the market partially unloaded in advance, which creates the conditions for a sharp move in either direction once the numbers are released.

A separate theme was bitcoin, which topped $81,000 for the first time since mid-May as optimism returned to the long underperforming crypto market. Recall that in early August the crypto was locked in a $62,000–$66,000 range, and the current rally coincided with dollar weakness after Treasury intervention in the bond market.

Major market shifts are unlikely in the coming days, as investors prepare for Nvidia's earnings to judge whether the AI hardware boom is slowing. Financial markets will also watch Fed chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance closely for clues on the short-term path of monetary policy.

Yesterday, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent unexpectedly refrained from new signals about reforming debt management processes, despite market expectations. During the US session, Treasuries rallied after a report that the Treasury could use cash balances to fund buybacks of higher yielding old paper to reduce borrowing costs, but Bessent did not address the topic in his remarks. The 10-year yield stabilized at 4.71% after a four-basis-point decline earlier in the day.

Currency and commodity markets reacted to the Iran agenda in opposite directions. The dollar retained strength after Bessent's remarks about excluding Iran from the global financial system underscored the greenback's central role in trade and boosted its appeal as a haven.

Brent fell 0.8% to about $91.40 per barrel, and gold gave back early gains and eased 0.2% to around $4,640 per ounce, although it had earlier risen to a May high.

According to the technical picture, buyers' immediate task today is to clear resistance at $7,679. That will show strength and open the way to $7,698. Controlling $7,718 would further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, if risk appetite wanes, buyers must defend $7,656. A break there will quickly push the index back to $7,633 and open the road to $7,607.