12.03.202612:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Thursday, the AUD/USD pair remains under selling pressure, ending a four-day rally that had previously pushed the price to its highest level since June 2022, around 0.7190.

The continuation of the U.S.–Israeli military conflict with Iran has increased geopolitical tensions and triggered a surge in oil prices of more than 6% following reports of attacks on two tankers in the northern Persian Gulf, near Iraq and Kuwait.

These developments have raised concerns about disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, reduced investor appetite for risk assets, and supported demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, which led to profit-taking in the AUD/USD pair.

Data released earlier by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in February, while the annual rate remained at 3.1%. The figures confirm moderate inflation growth, but geopolitical risks are increasing concerns about stronger price pressures. This is driving higher U.S. Treasury yields and supporting the U.S. dollar.

However, the continued hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is supporting the Australian dollar and limiting the depth of the correction. On Tuesday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that rising oil prices could accelerate inflation and strengthen the case for an interest-rate increase. Following his comments, the market shifted expectations for a second rate hike to the next RBA meeting, scheduled for next week.

Additional support for the Australian dollar came from data by the Melbourne Institute, which showed that Australian consumer inflation expectations for March 2025 rose to 5.2%, up from 4.7% the previous month—marking the highest level since July 2023. The market is already pricing in 58 basis points of monetary tightening over the next year, strengthening the position of buyers in the Australian dollar and calling for caution when opening short positions while waiting for a potential trend reversal in the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the pair has found support near the 0.7110 level. If this level and the psychological 0.7100 mark fail to hold, the pair may fall toward the 20-day SMA near 0.7075, which would indicate that buyers are beginning to lose control of the short-term trend. However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, the path of least resistance remains upward.