22.05.202615:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Iran, US dollar, and gold: who will win?

On Thursday, gold rode a real roller coaster — all because of conflicting reports about talks between the US and Iran. Such news quickly moves the dollar, yields and oil prices, and therefore the price of gold.

In the morning, spot gold fell nearly 1% to around $4,500 an ounce, then partially bounced back. June COMEX futures were near $4,555 and ultimately closed the day slightly higher after early losses. The swings were driven by sharp geopolitical volatility.

At first, Iran's supreme leader denied rumors of a breakthrough in the talks. That pushed oil prices higher and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could proceed with rate hikes. The dollar and Treasury yields moved up, putting pressure on gold. Later, however, reports emerged that Pakistani intermediaries are actively trying to bridge positions between Washington and Tehran.

President Trump also said the parties are in the "final stage," but warned that if talks go poorly, "events will quickly unfold on an escalatory path." In short, diplomatic uncertainty continues to keep the market on edge, which supports the dollar.

If the US and Iran do sign a memorandum (sanctions relief, resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz), oil would fall, inflation fears would ease, and yield?driven pressure would abate — which would be positive for gold. But if talks collapse or escalation begins, oil will almost certainly spike, the Fed will face a difficult choice, real rates will rise, and gold will come back under pressure.

So, headlines about US?Iran negotiations have whipped markets into strong moves, and it remains unclear which way gold will go. Market direction will hinge on whether the opposing sides can reach an agreement.