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The price test at 155.73 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 pips.
The dollar continues to regain ground against the Japanese yen, and there are currently no particularly aggressive sellers, even though conditions should be favorable for yen buyers. Apparently, traders have decided to pause ahead of the central bank outcomes from these countries.
Today's data showing a decline in machinery orders in Japan somewhat weakened the yen against the dollar. However, the pair's further direction will depend on how decisive the Bank of Japan is in its commitment to raising interest rates. On the one hand, weak data put pressure on the yen, as they signal slowing economic growth. On the other hand, any signals from the BOJ regarding a willingness to abandon its loose monetary policy could lead to a sharp strengthening of the yen. Investors will also closely monitor the central bank's rhetoric, analyzing every word for future plans.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 156.34 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 156.73 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.73, I intend to exit my long positions and open a short position in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.86 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 156.34 and 156.73 can be expected.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the 155.86 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.34 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.34 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.86 and 155.34 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
