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The U.S. dollar continued its rise against risk assets, especially against the British pound, which has been facing difficulties lately.
The influence of verbal interventions from the U.S. Federal Reserve on financial markets remains significant, as does the political statements made yesterday by the Prime Minister of the UK regarding taxes. Recent statements by regulatory officials about maintaining flexibility in interest rate cuts, particularly their emphasis on decision-making at the December meeting, have triggered a wave of U.S. dollar strengthening. This effect is explained by the market's tendency to interpret such rhetoric as a signal of a more conservative monetary policy, making the dollar more attractive to investors seeking stability and higher returns.
Today promises to be eventful for financial markets. Data from Germany and the Eurozone will be in focus, potentially having a substantial impact on currency pair dynamics and investor sentiment. The trading day will commence with the release of data on changes in German industrial orders. This figure is an important barometer of the German economy, and unexpected deviations from forecasts can provoke volatility in the currency market. Concurrently, investors will monitor the Eurozone producer price index, which will provide insight into inflationary pressures in the region. Closer to noon, attention will shift to the PMI indices for the services sector in the Eurozone and the composite PMI index. These indicators, based on surveys of purchasing managers, serve as important signals of the overall state of the Eurozone economy. A reading above 50 indicates growth in business activity, while values below this level point to contraction.
The speech by the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the currency market. His rhetoric has been clear and consistent recently, so we do not expect any new insights from this ECB representative.
As for the pound, statistics for the services sector will also be released today, but given that the market is under pressure from new taxes proposed by the Treasury, even positive data is unlikely to spark significant buying of GBP/USD.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is the best approach.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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