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The price test at 160.11 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar. However, the expected decline in the pair did not materialize.
Given that markets are widely awaiting potential intervention from the Bank of Japan, no strong or directional movements are currently taking place. In the near term, data on U.S. small business sentiment (NFIB index), trade balance figures, and existing home sales will be released. These indicators have a certain level of importance for short-term forecasting of the U.S. economy and may influence trader sentiment.
The NFIB index is considered one of the key leading indicators, reflecting business activity levels and confidence among small business owners. A reading above expectations may support further upside in USD/JPY. At the same time, the trade balance reflects the ratio of exports to imports, where stronger-than-expected data may also support the U.S. dollar.
Finally, existing home sales — in a market where mortgage rates are rising almost daily — serve as an important indicator of the housing sector and the broader real estate market. They also indirectly reflect consumer confidence and mortgage affordability. Sustained growth in home sales would indicate stronger housing demand, which is unlikely. Weak housing data, on the other hand, may signal a slowdown in the real estate market and place some pressure on the U.S. dollar against the yen.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the 160.23 level (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 160.39 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.39, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Further upside in the pair is possible only in the case of negative news regarding a potential U.S.–Iran agreement. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.
USD/JPY buying is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 160.11, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward 160.23 and 160.39 can be expected.
Sell Signal
I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakdown below 160.11 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.87, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure may return if there is intervention from the Bank of Japan. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward from it.
USD/JPY selling is also considered in the case of two consecutive tests of 160.23, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 160.11 and 159.87 can be expected.
Chart Explanation
Important Notice
Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and large volumes are traded.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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