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Today, Thursday, the euro is trading slightly above the psychological 1.1700 level against the US dollar. Since the beginning of the week, the single European currency has lost around 0.65% of its value. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the two-day summit involving U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Market participants are also focused on today's speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.
This week, market activity has largely favored the US dollar, which continues to receive support from capital inflows into safe-haven assets amid the stalemate in the conflict with Iran, as well as growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in late 2026 or early 2027. Rising energy prices are increasing inflationary pressure, further reinforcing these expectations.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Wednesday confirmed this trend: in April, the indicator rose by 1.4%, double the March increase of 0.7%; on an annual basis, growth accelerated to 6.0%, reaching the highest level since December 2023. These figures followed strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to reconsider the possibility of raising the key interest rate again.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures markets are now pricing in a 31% probability of a December rate hike, compared with 22% just a week ago. These expectations have pushed US Treasury yields higher and contributed to the dollar's appreciation this week.
In the eurozone, Spain's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also confirms inflationary pressure related to the Middle East conflict: in April, the index rose 3.5% year-over-year, above March's 3.4% reading. Market attention is now shifting to ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech in Aachen, Germany, where participants expect possible guidance regarding the timing of the ECB's next rate hike. Markets are already pricing in tighter monetary policy, with expectations that it could occur no later than June or July.
From a technical perspective, oscillators are giving mixed signals, while the Relative Strength Index remains close to neutral. If prices hold above the 1.1700 psychological level, the nearest resistance will be the 20-day SMA, followed by resistance near the 1.1800 round level around 1.1790. If the pair fails to hold above 1.1700, support will likely emerge at the 200-day SMA, followed by the 50-day SMA — a zone that prevented a deeper decline in April. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair remains in a sideways trading range.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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