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During Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline toward the 127.2% corrective level of 1.1440 based on the new Fibonacci grid. A rebound of quotes from the 1.1440 level would favor the European currency and lead to some growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level of 1.1577. Consolidation of the pair's rate below 1.1440 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level of 161.8% – 1.1266.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave by only a few pips, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend currently remains bearish. The actions of Donald Trump in the Middle East have triggered large-scale military operations involving about a dozen countries, which have allowed—and continue to allow—the dollar to strengthen as a safe-haven currency.
On Thursday, the information background once again did not have a significant impact on trading during the day—at least when it comes to economic reports. As for geopolitics, it remains extremely complex and at the same time is the only reason for the growth of the U.S. currency and the constant attacks by bears. Traders are probably used to the following pattern: a report is released, the market reacts or does not react to it; if it does react, the reaction lasts from about one hour to 5–6 hours. Now the market situation is completely different. The flow of sell orders for EUR/USD does not stop either day or night, even though there is essentially one reason behind such market behavior.
In the last few days it has become known that Iran does not intend to agree to a ceasefire and has begun striking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while all market hopes for a quick end to the conflict and stabilization of oil prices have been shattered. As a result, the dollar continues to be in demand as a "safe haven," while the euro is falling sharply because the energy crisis will affect the European Union the most.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. currency and resumed its decline toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474 according to the new Fibonacci grid. A rebound from this level would favor the European currency and some growth toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1617. Consolidation of the pair below 1.1474 would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1310. The descending trend channel continues to indicate complete dominance of the bears. No new emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 287 Long positions and opened 20,071 Short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, largely due to Donald Trump and his policies, but in recent weeks we have seen a reduction in Long positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 294,000, while Short positions amount to 158,000. The bulls' advantage remains nearly twofold.
Overall, in the long term, large players continue to reduce their Short positions and increase Long positions. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—have different impacts on investors. At the moment, all market attention is focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near future the exchange rate of the euro and the dollar will depend not on Federal Reserve monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone
European Union
United States
On March 13, the economic calendar contains several fairly important events. However, the market resumed selling the pair in the early morning without waiting for the reports. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may remain weak.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice
Selling the pair was possible after a close below 1.1577 with a target of 1.1440. These trades can also be held today with a target of 1.1374. Buy positions can be opened if quotes rebound from 1.1440 with a target of 1.1577.
Fibonacci levels are built from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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