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The market has entered a reset phase after one of the largest sell-offs in recent years. That is how Morgan Stanley described the rebound from local lows. The bank believes that investors will continue to buy dips and that the S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by year-end. A straight, linear rally from March's lows is rare — markets never move in a straight line, and there is always time for pullbacks.
S&P 500 and index forecasts dynamics
I agree with Morgan Stanley and Citigroup. Experts also believe that investors have not lost interest in mega-cap tech and have raised their S&P 500 target from 7,700 to 8,100, citing optimistic forward-earnings estimates.
Indeed, last Friday's losers were among Monday's best-bought names. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped by about 5% after the record sell-off. Even Intel held up well on reports that Google and NVIDIA are considering its products as contingency options.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index performance
That said, the market remains concerned about persistent inflation and the prospect of Fed tightening. The S&P 500's recovery was uneven: 8 of 11 sectors finished lower. Only about 180 stocks advanced, while the rest closed in the red.
High market concentration, stretched fundamentals, and fears of interest rate hikes that could trigger a recession are forcing investors to stay cautious.
That caution and profit-taking is exactly what Bank of America urges. Their research shows 70% of downside signals have been triggered versus 50% at prior peaks. Using 20 proprietary measures, BofA finds that the S&P 500 appears overvalued on 17; on 8 measures, the broad index looks like a tech bubble.
So large banks are split on the S&P 500's near-term path. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup recommend buying the dip; Bank of America advises locking in gains.
My view is that the next real test for the broad index will be the release of US inflation data. Bloomberg consensus forecasts headline CPI at 4.2% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.9%. Such prints would move odds of Fed tightening forward from December to earlier in the cycle. That would push Treasury yields higher and dent global risk appetite, which is clearly bad news for equities.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has formed an inside bar after the large sell-off. It makes sense to place two pending orders: a buy order near the inside bar high around 7,465 and a sell order near the low at 7,395.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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