28.05.202613:29 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – May 28th

Today, the British pound, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade any instruments using the Momentum strategy.

The absence of economic data from the eurozone and the United Kingdom allowed buyers of the euro and pound to recover some of their positions. A significant amount of US data is still ahead. US first-quarter GDP figures and initial jobless claims are important indicators capable of moving the market out of its current stagnation. However, even more attention will be focused on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, along with changes in US personal income and spending.

This flow of information will inevitably act as a catalyst for increased volatility, providing traders with updated data for assessing the real condition of the world's largest economy. The core PCE index is traditionally viewed by policymakers as the most reliable and accurate indicator of inflationary pressure. Traders will also closely analyze income and spending dynamics in an attempt to assess the resilience of consumer demand. Whether consumers can continue supporting economic growth amid rising inflation and tight lending conditions remains an open question.

In the event of strong economic data, I will rely on the implementation of the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• Buy positions on a breakout above 1.1630 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1659 and 1.1678;
• Sell positions on a breakout below 1.1600 may lead to euro weakness toward 1.1585 and 1.1555;

For GBP/USD

• Buy positions on a breakout above 1.3411 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3453 and 1.3493;
• Sell positions on a breakout below 1.3370 may lead to pound weakness toward 1.3337 and 1.3302;

For USD/JPY

• Buy positions on a breakout above 159.60 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.83 and 160.02;
• Sell positions on a breakout below 159.39 may trigger dollar selling toward 159.13 and 158.83;

Mean Reversion Strategy for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1634 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1596 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3414 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3376 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7130 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 0.7110 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3875 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3847 followed by a return above this level.