12.03.202612:25 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – March 12

Given the low market volatility, I did not execute any trades today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I also did not find suitable entry points using the Momentum strategy.

The second half of the day promises to be more eventful with a variety of macroeconomic data releases that will undoubtedly attract increased attention from traders. First of all, new statistical reports from the United States will be closely watched. Of particular interest are the initial jobless claims data. This metric is one of the key indicators of labor market conditions and can provide insight into employment dynamics in the economy. High or rising readings may signal weakening employment, while a decline in claims would be viewed as a positive sign.

Another important indicator is the trade balance. This measure reflects the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports of goods and services. A significant deviation from forecasts could influence the U.S. dollar exchange rate.

Traders will also focus on housing market statistics. The number of building permits issued and housing starts are leading indicators that help assess future investment in real estate and activity in the construction sector. Positive data in this area often boost confidence in the economy and may stimulate consumer activity, prompting traders to initiate new purchases of the dollar.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1575 may lead to growth toward 1.1612 and 1.1645.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1545 may lead to a decline toward 1.1510 and 1.1475.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3400 may lead to growth toward 1.3425 and 1.3465.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3375 may lead to a decline toward 1.3340 and 1.3310.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 158.85 may lead to growth toward 159.15 and 159.49.
• Selling on a breakout below 158.70 may lead to a decline toward 158.45 and 158.23.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1577 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1532 followed by a return above this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3405 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3355 followed by a return above this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7151 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7112 followed by a return above this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3595 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3576 followed by a return above this level.