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The price test at 1.3349 occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.
Despite overall pressure on the GBP/USD pair from geopolitical upheavals and further Iranian strikes on U.S. bases, traders have regained faith in Donald Trump's statements that the conflict will be resolved soon. This change in sentiment was reflected in market quotes, pushing the British pound to a slight rise against the American currency after a major sell-off last Friday.
Unfortunately, there is again no data from the UK today, so there will be significantly fewer reasons for the GBP/USD pair to continue its recovery. The absence of fresh macroeconomic data leaves the pound in a precarious position, depriving it of the support needed to bolster an upward move. The market is likely to trade within a narrow range until new drivers emerge. Attention will likely shift to external factors: the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, global market sentiment, and any statements from Trump regarding the Middle East.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3373 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3407 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3407, I will exit the long positions and sell in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). Expecting a rise in the pound today can only be justified within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3354 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3373 and 1.3407.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3354 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3316, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3373 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3354 and 1.3316.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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