20.10.202613:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – October 20

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The specified levels were not tested during the first half of the day.

US housing market data could trigger a more pronounced increase in USD/JPY volatility. Building permits and housing starts will show how the construction sector is responding to high borrowing costs, while pending home sales will provide an indication of future sales activity. Mortgage rates are linked to US Treasury yields, which, in turn, affect the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. However, forecasts remain subdued. Building permits are expected to reach 1.400 million, compared with 1.403 million previously, while housing starts are forecast at 1.310 million, up from 1.275 million. Pending home sales are expected to decline by 0.5% after rising by 0.3%. Weak housing data could push Treasury yields lower and give the yen some temporary relief, strengthening its position against the dollar. Strong figures, however, would support the US currency.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, USD/JPY can be bought when the price reaches the entry level around 158.19 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 158.40 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.40, the long position will be closed and a short position opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pair could rise today, although the upward potential appears limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 158.07 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could rise toward the opposite levels of 158.19 and 158.40.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, USD/JPY can be sold after the price breaks below the 158.07 level (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 157.85, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 158.19 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could decline toward the opposite levels of 158.07 and 157.85.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.