10.06.202604:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. June 10. Is There Again a Rise in Risk-Averse Sentiment?

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Tuesday despite the lack of significant geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fundamental events. Secondary reports from Germany and the U.S. failed to prompt a rise in the pair, partly because they were not particularly positive for the euro and the pound. The only notable fundamental event is the upcoming European Central Bank meeting, but its outcome is already known and was anticipated last week. The ECB is expected to raise rates, which should support the euro and possibly even the British pound, which generally correlates with it. However, instead, we saw a decline in the GBP/USD pair.

We do not believe that the market should have ignored the Nonfarm Payrolls report. This is indeed an important report that gave the Federal Reserve the opportunity to move towards tightening monetary policy very soon. Previously, the weakness in the U.S. labor market held the Fed back from raising the key rate. While it was not the only reason, it was one of the main reasons. Last year, amid a weakening labor market, the Fed was even forced to cut the key rate three times. Although the market does not believe the Fed will tighten monetary policy this summer, that does not mean such a scenario is completely excluded.

So what was behind the pair's upward movement on Tuesday? In our view, it was nothing specific. Macroeconomics could not provoke a rise in the British pound. There were no fundamental events during the day. Traders have long stopped paying attention to Trump's promises. No changes occurred in the situation in the Middle East. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing; both sides continue to issue ultimatums to each other, and neither is ready to make significant concessions. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and no independent experts see any signs of an end to the war, of a peace agreement being signed soon, or of the Strait of Hormuz being unblocked.

Traders have even become accustomed to the continuous violations of the ceasefire conditions established on April 8 by both Iran and the U.S. Initially, the market feared another strike from Iran or Israel or missile attacks from the U.S., but now it has become accustomed to them, realizing that they will not affect the negotiation process. Tehran and Washington do not want to resume war, nor are they willing to make concessions to sign an agreement; they respond to each attack in kind to prevent the other side from interpreting a willingness to negotiate as a weakness or readiness to accept any ultimatum. The situation is in a complete stalemate.

Thus, market movements are currently highly random. On Friday, the dollar logically rose by 100 pips, while on Monday and Tuesday it fell for no visible reason. Tomorrow it may rise again. The market itself is confused in this turmoil. We tend to think that the first two days of the week exhibited a typical technical correction.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 81 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Wednesday, June 10, we expect movement within a range bounded by levels 1.3297 and 1.3459. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upward, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate in the long term. However, 2026 is shaping up to be very positive for the dollar due to geopolitics. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading to the downside can be executed with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245. The market situation changes frequently, and it continues to predominantly track geopolitical news, which lacks a uniform character.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the prospective price channel within which the pair will likely remain for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is near.