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Yesterday, US equity indices finished mixed. The S&P 500 fell by 0.07%, the Nasdaq 100 slipped by 0.51%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.32%.
Equities are down for a third session in a row. The temporary relief after Trump's comments about delaying strikes on Iran proved short-lived: oil still trades near $110/bbl and is up roughly 80% year-to-date, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and negotiations have stalled. The US rejected Iran's proposal as insufficient, and Iran called the American terms unacceptable.
Today's main story is bond markets. 30-year US Treasury yields climbed to 5.14% — the highest since 2023 — signaling active selling. In Japan, the move is even more extreme: 30-year JGBs hit record highs since their 1999 debut. A structural rise in global yields is changing market dynamics: investors who ignored geopolitical risk amid the AI rally are now forced to reprice equities in a higher-cost capital environment.
The tech sector is bearing the brunt. South Korea's KOSPI fell by 2.6%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slid for a second day; Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.5% in morning trade.
Notably, over the past five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific index fell in 16 of 19 weeks when 10-year US Treasury yields rose by 20bp or more, losing an average 1.6% — a pattern economists say we are currently experiencing.
The US dollar strengthened slightly, while gold dropped about 0.7% to roughly $4,540/oz as higher rates weigh on non-yielding assets. Traders are moving to cash amid uncertainty over the Iran ceasefire process. As HSBC's chief Asia economist Frederik Neumann noted, a structural rise in yields inevitably boosts volatility in risk assets — and neither oil nor the talks offer reasons for optimism right now.
As for the technical S&P 500 analysis, buyers' immediate task is to overcome the resistance level of $7,404. Doing so would signal renewed upside momentum and open the path to $7,427. Maintaining control above $7,451 would further strengthen buyers' position. On the downside, buyers must defend $7,381. A break below that level would likely push the index toward $7,355 and open the way to $7,339.
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